by Chet Sellers
I’m still getting my head around all of these “fancy stats” you kids use – growing up, the only stat we kept was wins, which happen to correlate pretty well with winning, thank you very much. So I’ll get out my
TI-55 at some point and program circles around all of you, but for now, I feel I’m on pretty safe ground making the following assertion:
“In hockey, scoring more goals than your opponent is a key factor in winning in hockey.”
The 2012-13 Senators finished 26th in the league in goals for, in part due to injuries to key offensive talent like Erik Karlsson, Jason Spezza, and Milan Michalek. They also finished 2nd in the league in goals against, in part due to the most successful PK in the league, which itself was
heavily supported by a record-breaking .941 SV% season from Craig Anderson and equally solid seasons from Robin Lehner and Ben Bishop.
This year, Karlsson, Spezza, and Michalek are back, Bobby Ryan has come to town, and it’s not unreasonable to expect offensive steps forward from players like Mika Zibanejad and Kyle Turris as they move down the depth chart and face weaker competition. Perhaps most importantly, we understand Erik Condra has been taking shooting drills against the broad side of a barn all summer, and a modest improvement in his shooting percentage alone could net the team as many as 350 additional goals this season.
On the other hand, it’s also not unreasonable to expect the team’s goaltending and PK to regress, and for the team’s defensive corps to struggle as Jared Cowen returns from injury, Patrick Wiercioch is expected to replace Sergei Gonchar, Chris Phillips is a year older, and Joe Corvo is being given his own jersey and everything. So I feel comfortable making the following two predictions about the 2013-14 season:
a) The Senators will score more goals than last year.
b) The Senators will allow more goals than last year.
I feel especially comfortable with these predictions because I checked and the Senators are scheduled to play 34 more games than last year. But you know what I mean.
So in this brave new world of goals, goals, goals, who’s under the most pressure to perform, and who’s going to be most responsible for the team’s success or failure? Let’s find out!